Cocoa got hot again the last few days. I should have re-bought that half I flipped before. Oh, well, the other commodity positions I had were distracting me.
I've liked cocoa for a long term bull trade for awhile now. I think that medical data that chocolate is healthy has much more to run. I heard that over 18 months ago, but the data is better now and is getting play in the press. Over time I figure the public will eat enough more chocolate [do we really need an excuse?] to increase the prices a lot.
There is an ongoing drought in Ivory Coast where about 40% of the world's cocoa is grown. I don't play the weather in cocoa, but read about what's going on in research so I can interpret market moves better.
So I play the long side on dips. Lots of beefers are in it, so cocoa is volatile, as the spike & dip just proved again.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
46 comments:
first named storm on May 9th?
rut oh
Yeah. Not a good start. Will make landfall, too.
Bunkerman you remember what happened last year on may10th?
No. What?
Take a look at the chart of the S and P.
That was the Maria-leak of Ben-speak that caused investors to think the Fed would keep raising rates. But they raised in June (an error, imho).
Uh, are you superstitious, Bud?
Lol, "It's different this time" lolol.
so if the fed says economic weakness is a biggger concern than inflation, we off to 1550?
that, to me at least, wud imply, the fed is smoking crack, but the cheebah is getting really expensive. crack is pretty cheap from what ive heard. bud crack the same price as when u started smoking it?
someone bet 4 mil on the vix june 20's calls. now thats some beef or one crazy mo fo
That's not my thinking, Mern. They can recognize that inflation is declining with moderate growth & talk dovish, that inflation is LESS of a concern. That would be very bullish, imho.
Hmm. It's hot here today. I might have to buy some beer for the summer. Guess that will be an inflation data point. One case of my local beer, Ipswich Ale (the best, a British style ale that's not pasteurized since it's made about 10 miles away) cost $24.95 for the past two years. I'll probably buy a case on Saturday. If I do, I'll post the inflation rate.
thats likely gone up. miller lite has stayed 15 bucks a case.
it probably wud be bullish if the fed says that, but only the govt data even hints at that scenario.
i think we r looking at below avg growth say 2%. eps growth, probably over half comes from the weaker $ and buybacks (sponsored by corp debt). and inflation for the avg american is way over 5%.
im totally wrong, i know that, the market tells me that. but what i see from florida, to ohio, to colorado to cali is all the samething. Stagger Lee
I don't know what you talkin about Mern. What is cheebah?
Kirin Lite my favorite beer. Although I am not really a beer fan.
geez bud u smoke crack but dont know the slang for gud weed?
that was probably one the funniest things ever. when i was staying with u. i broke my bag of weed out and asked u for a bowl and u gave me a cereal dish. LOL LOL
i guess i needed to break out the base for u to get the hint. LMAO
seemed a bit hawkish to me
I didn't hear a bullish surprise. Oh, well. One good month's downtick wasn't enough. Maybe June we can get a more dovish statement. At least not hawkish.
Lite beer? Ptui!
omg, cramer was finally wrong about something. no may cut, and there is not one coming in june.
this MHK short is the gift that keeps on giving today. gotta love a company that crushes its own buyout rumors
june cracks at 32.27 up 1.94. guess its going to 4 at the pump
:-)
I think we have an outside shot for June. Not based on weakness in growth, but in declining core inflation numbers. We'll have two more data points by then, I think.
im 200% long ;-)
Not sure whither comes this rally - maybe beefers were playing short bigtime re the calendar play from last year. If so, they deserve to be crushed for sheer stupidity.
Gosh, we're with spitting distance of teh S&P all-time high. [ "spitting distance = 1% ;-) ]
Perma-bear beefers must be dying.
From my perch, the odds favoring a housing-induced recession are now increasing. My bearish preoccupation with the health of the housing markets appears to be justified by history.
dougie kass.
if i was as wrong as him, id give up. oh thats right, i have. LOL
Kass. Arghhhhhhhh. Well, he's a short only fund, so the bigger the rally, the lower goes his benchmark. Hmmm. hither come the buyers, thither goes his benchmark. lolol. ;-)
Cramer is sooooooooooo shallow. I'm embarrassed he was a year behind me in college.
Jimmy nailed FWLT. He a long time fan of that stock.
even when he admits to being wrong, he says he is still right.
it really surprises me he goes to Eagles games and doesnt ever get beat up.
well with the way the tixs at the linc have been going up, i think unless u as rich as cramer its either season tixs or investing so maybe noone at the games invests?
so y did he sell it last yr? (flwt)
Sheesh. It's hot here & I'm wearing flip-flops. If I take them off, Sky the puppy steals them to chew in his lair.
I need to figure out how to post dog photos on this blog.
oh nellie, pisani trashing a trader who is probably a million times richer than him. ive seen this movie before. it was late 99. like 50 yr old money managers hiring 20 yr old gunslingers becuase they didnt get the market anymore.
its a total puke fest on cnbc
What is wrong with these "modern" traders? Pisani is full of it. "Old school traders" let the winners ride, aka Jesse Livermore, until something changes.
D'uh.
"The trend is your friend"
Jesse Livermore traded in an illiquid manipulated market.
Well, I guess Jesse Livermore made his really big money NOT being a trader - "sitting", he said.
Why do we give a crap what "traders" do? They're just virtual noise in the market. This trend is from real buyers.
Uh........I 'give a crap' what traders do. I wanna know what stevie cohen or paul tudor or boone pickens are doing.
The illiquidity was why he had to hold onto swings to "keep his position". He had such big positions compared to the liquidity, he couldn't "trade" at all once he got to be a big hitter.
its still manipulated bud. ;-)
this is the horniest ive ever seen the bulls, ever
Ok, I shouldn't have said, "we", I meant I. But I do care about Boone since he has longer-term views. but I care zilch re the other two guys, unless they're doing month trades. Cohen said he was doing more longer trades in that article, so maybe him. I suspect we're not gonna hear about what they do until they're done, anyway or want us to buy their stock. I thought that was why SAC filed all those 13-D's -> to get others to buy their stock at a high price.
We have a long way to go, PE-wise, to get to mid 1980 pricing, or even mid 1960 pricing.
Lmaooooooooo..... thank you for changing from 'we' to 'I'.
Amazing how different we think. But that's why I like this blog. I learn about others opinions and that reassures me that I must be right.
GE looks really cheap. im surprised no LBO's on that.
imagine that. i cud see haines moon the camera and say " i quit!"
GE is really cheap. It might be too big, though, for an LBO.
One of the few.
They like their Aaa/AAA rating so won't lever up, either.
I bought it for Mom a while back - a good one for the older people, safe dividend & growth.
Solid day.
I think I'll have a brewskie. :-)
Peace.
just got home from soccer, its only 70 degrees out, nice!
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