It's summer (meteorological summer!) :-))
Suttmeier was on Bubblevision early, spewing strong bearish views. He says US stocks are way overvalued. I wonder how he calculates that? Maybe to the 16th decimal place in his models? I disagree, as I've blogged many times in the past. US stocks are significantly undervalued, especially big caps.
Asia did OK over while the US was on holiday. India was up; China, too. India BPO stocks are getting hurt on the rupee gains as the BPOs get paid in US$.
To me, the charts - particularly on the weeklies - look like a breakout from a long base. Perhaps a revaluation as Ms. Market realizes long-term interest rates are really going to stabilize in the 5% area. That presumes the moderate growth, disinflation economic trajectory that I think will occur for the next couple years at least.
The Japanese consumer seems to be awakening. So I think that the Asian consumer might lead in a 21st Century, peaceful East and South Asian Co-Prosperity Zone which can become a powerful economic engine for the world.
And oil & miners will lead, as India & China growth requires huge amounts as they growth fast on an ever increasing base.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
22 comments:
SLV looks tempting here. u r probably right, biggest risk is geopolitics. im not missing trading like i thought. cancelled my briefing today so there goes my ability to know what the crack spreads r. u have a link for that k dog? re crack spreads
I can get those anytime. I follow the 321. That's about 26.8 at it's high, testing the old high there. Not intra-day. I probably can get those, too, if you like, from my broker.
bt saying crack spreads been near 36 to 37, last week
those are probably pure gasoline cracks. Hmmm. Yes, June gasoline only cracks had a high of about 37.5 late May.
June is about 32 now.
July is 32.5
seemed to be some "gauging" down here becuase when cracks hit 35, premuim was 3.40 to 3.50. when cracks hit near 38 last week, gas dropped 10 to 15 cents, after governor christ got on cnbc and suggested "gauging" was going on.
still no demand destruction yet, i bet at 4 for regular, maybe, just maybe demands drops a hair, but probably not. that wud mean less butter and ameris love da butter
Come on Mern. Americans are fat lazy pigs. Walk? Riding a bike?..Not a chance! Demand destruction not in sight.
I don't see any demand destruction. There's too much traffic.
People still want to live in the suburbs where one has to drive 20 miles to get food or do anything.
They buy huge SUVs to drive the kids to soccer. A complete waste.
agree
Slow increases in gas prices let people get used to it. Only a big rises that sticks to $4 might change them. And the fools still think the politicians will force prices down. Any talk about more production? Nawww, they always want some pie-in-the-sky invention that never appears.
VLO big negative stochastic divg. LOL
exactly, still no new refiniers started. when was the last one built, the 70's? we have what 100 mil more cars on the road than then. and people wonder why its going up and its a govt conspiracy.
dumb da dumb
Beefers use VLO as a trading tool for cracks, etc. I think it goes private. Holding long term.
any opinions on bollings ALJ?
put some SLW into my IRA here
ALJ chart shows a good C&H bullsih. PE is 12x. Cheap. Don't know anything, tho. I missed his pump.
he has loved since the begining of the show, dont know if he mentioned it lately.
he loves the west coast refiners becuase he says there arent any, so they shud have the best margins in the country.
Salivating here. Mrs. B said she'd bring me a Double Quarter Pounder with Cheese for lunch again today. Waiting ... :-)
Bunkerman you keep eating Mcdonalds........don't waste your money on a bunker, mre's, radiation pills, survival gear etc....You won't live long enough to see the apocalypse.
bunkerman...hard to believe a smart man like yourself voluntarily puts mcdonalds in his body...
You guys believe that liberal garbage? I'm shocked. McDonald's makes good food. Lots of fat, true. I'm skipping the fries, btw. ;-)
My Kelpies love the double cheeseburgers & Spikie likes the grilled chicken. Since they normally prefer organic food, the McDonald's food MUST be OK. ;-)
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
I think I'll go work on another paper punching machine ;-)
Good luck.
cals in, cals out. u burn more than u make, a little MCD aint bad for u.
its been so long since ive tried MCD's the last time i did have some, like a yr ago. i got sick, like the guy in "Super size me". 6 mcnuggets, and large fries (even water no soda) was too much sugar for me and i ralphed it out about 10 minutes later.
but i still can drink 12 beers, ride my bike, with dog in hand, and be fine. im in excellent drinking shape, but felt like an amateur with Dooz on friday. LOL
Age does that to your drinking, Mern ;-)
If I eat the fries as well as the bugrger, that's too much fat & I get punished by my stomach.
That Mobil 1 oil sure makes my hi-speed, automatic paper-punching machines work well. Great stuff. :-))
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